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BP's new projections show emissions won't go down in 20 years-IX: Alternative routes to lower emissions possible
Jan 30:
Are there alternative routes available for world fossil fuel demand to slow down?
8A lot would depend on the industrialization in Africa. If the economic growth in Africa continues to grow, as is likely, fossil fuel demand is going to continue to increase albeit at a much smaller pace but if growth is slow, then perhaps oil demand can peak around 2035.
8There are other ways of bringing down fossil fuel demand more quickly, including a faster growth in electric vehicle numbers. Instead of 100 million such cars by 2035, there can be another 100 million cars.
8The ‘faster transition’ case assumes that a range of existing policy mechanisms are tightened by far more than envisaged in the base case. Carbon prices in leading economies rise to $100/tonne in real terms by 2035 and a range of other policy interventions encourage more rapid energy efficiency gains and fuel switching.
8As a result, emissions peak in the early 2020s and by 2035 are 12% below 2015; global energy intensity and carbon intensity improve at unprecedented rates. Most of the abatement relative to the base case comes from decarbonizing the power sector.
8That still leaves a significant gap: the ‘even faster transition’ case illustrates a possible configuration that delivers an emissions trajectory that matches the path of the IEA 450 scenario. Emissions in this case are 32% below 2015 levels by 2035.
8Most of the incremental abatement comes from the power sector: by 2035 power is almost entirely decarbonized, with global emissions from power generation less than a quarter of their 2015 level.
8But these fast transition cases depend entirely on how quickly governments move to curb emission levels.
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8A lot would depend on the industrialization in Africa. If the economic growth in Africa continues to grow, as is likely, fossil fuel demand is going to continue to increase albeit at a much smaller pace but if growth is slow, then perhaps oil demand can peak around 2035.
8There are other ways of bringing down fossil fuel demand more quickly, including a faster growth in electric vehicle numbers. Instead of 100 million such cars by 2035, there can be another 100 million cars.
8The ‘faster transition’ case assumes that a range of existing policy mechanisms are tightened by far more than envisaged in the base case. Carbon prices in leading economies rise to $100/tonne in real terms by 2035 and a range of other policy interventions encourage more rapid energy efficiency gains and fuel switching.
8As a result, emissions peak in the early 2020s and by 2035 are 12% below 2015; global energy intensity and carbon intensity improve at unprecedented rates. Most of the abatement relative to the base case comes from decarbonizing the power sector.
8That still leaves a significant gap: the ‘even faster transition’ case illustrates a possible configuration that delivers an emissions trajectory that matches the path of the IEA 450 scenario. Emissions in this case are 32% below 2015 levels by 2035.
8Most of the incremental abatement comes from the power sector: by 2035 power is almost entirely decarbonized, with global emissions from power generation less than a quarter of their 2015 level.
8But these fast transition cases depend entirely on how quickly governments move to curb emission levels.
Click on Reports for more
