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Feb 2016

What really explains the slowdown in the offtake of gas in India?
 
8April-December 2015 data shows that domestic production was lower by 4.3% but LNG import went up only by 8.29%.
 
8This means that overall, there was a growth of just 0.96% during this period.
 
8One reason is that there has been a substitution effect forced by lower price of liquid fuels.
 
8The other reason is the slowing down of industrial demand.
 
8Then again, there are supply constraints. For example, if the the evacuation network was in place in Kochi, LNG supply would have shot up.
 
8There are question marks too over whether the power sector can absorb high priced LNG.
 
8And despite a big push by the government, new fertilizer projects are slow to take off because investors are still remain skeptical as the high cost of LNG makes it easier to import urea than make it here.
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Margins are running thin in Gautam Adani's flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd.
 
8Profits plunged to a mere Rs 196 crore on a turnover of Rs 20,408 crore in October-December, 2015-16.
 
8Adani has his fingers in many pies and while it can be a disadvantage, it can have its benefits too.
 
8Coal and coal based power are Adani's biggest bets and the future remains uncertain in these segments though not immediately.
 
8Coal handling is big for Adani but with surpluses emerging in Coal India Ltd, coal imports may suffer as will his coal mine operations abroad, particularly in Australia where Adani has high stakes.
 
8On the other hand, Adani runs seven ports and business can only improve as trade expands in the future, even though exports and imports saw a slump this year.
 
8Adani has also invested heavily in solar power and he owns a few city gas distribution projects too.
 
8Overall, he has a diversified portfolio and so if one segment doesn't do well the other most likely will.
 
8Despite the obvious obstacles, Adani Enterprises has much to look forward too in the years ahead
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Low oil prices can create all kinds of problems in the oil and gas industry.
 
8Increasingly, it has been found that Production Sharing Contracts and Joint Operating Agreements are running into trouble as partners start having differences on economic viability of some of the investments sought to be made.
 For participants in JOAs, disputes may arise in relation to:
 
8The decision-making process in the approval and implementation of annual work programs and budgets and the approval of Authorizations for Expenditure and contract awards where different participants have different preferences or imperatives in relation to level of investment
 
8The mechanism for sole risk activities where not all of the participants contribute to or share in certain activities
 
8The payment of cash calls or invoices for a share of operating expenses where a participant faces problems with cash flow
 
8The  operation of pre-emption rights if participants are trying to reduce exposure by farming out part of, or disposing of all of, their participating share or if there are consolidations across the industry.
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Problems are also arising as operators try to revise service and construction contracts in order to reduce cost or to defer production
 
8They may also seek to renegotiate pricing or payment terms of a contract including the contractual terms, the relationship between the parties and the value involved.
 
8To date, many of these situations have been resolved through negotiation, as a drive to reduction in cost has been recognized as essential throughout the industry. Nevertheless, as optimism for a quick price recovery fades, more disputes may emerge as both operators and service providers try to protect value. .
 
8Long term supply agreements are also in trouble. With current market conditions, long term supply agreements will be, for some, valuable assets and, for others, millstones.
 
8Lower oil and gas prices will, in some instances, cause the price to become out of step with the parties’ expectations or the market into which the product is being sold. If that is the case, the buyer (and sometimes the seller) may look carefully at any flexibility it has in relation to the volumes delivered under the contract and whether there is any provision for a review of price.
 
8The renegotiation  by Petronet LNG of its contract with RasGas is an example.
 
8Even without express provisions allowing for a price review, the party suffering as a result of the price fall may look to renegotiate price or, ultimately, to terminate the agreement if that is not possible.
 
8Different legal systems take different approaches in this regard - in some civil law systems, the ability to seek relief from hardship is recognized, whereas common law systems tend to take the view that an agreement becoming economically less advantageous to one party is not a reason to alter, suspend or terminate performance.
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Relatively few insolvencies have been seen to date in the oil and gas sector.
 
8Many think that there has been a reluctance on the part of major creditors and bondholders to push for this step to be taken, preferring instead to take greater control over the operation of the business whilst it continues as a going concern. This will particularly be the case for licence-holders of fields which risk losing that licence as a result of an insolvency.
 
8In these circumstances, a pragmatic approach on all sides is required to protect value although, as those with experience of such situations will know, threats of disputes and brinksmanship will often be seen behind closed doors.
 
8For service companies the picture is less optimistic
 
8Although there have been few insolvencies seen in producers of oil and gas, for service companies the picture has been less optimistic. A recent study has shown the number of insolvencies in service companies increased significantly in 2015.
 
8The fall in the price of crude has already and will continue to lead to disputes. Although there will be a reluctance to divert resources towards fighting them, the need to protect value may make that unavoidable. If faced with a dispute, it will be critical to identify areas of difference early and to take steps to manage the dispute as soon as possible; this will allow the best prospect of mitigating most effectively the risks that the dispute presents.
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Details
BPCL has chalked out a plan to setup their its own LPG terminal and associated facilities in Haldia, West Bengal, at a cost of Rs 694 crore.
8The proposed project includes development of import, storage, bottling and bulk distribution facilities at the Haldia dock complex.
8The time schedule for the mechanical completion of the project is envisaged to be 24 months from the date of obtaining all approvals.
8Presently the gas major is using the import facilities of Indian Oil Petronas at Haldia for the unloading, storage and the distribution of bulk LPG.
8While BPCL, IOCL and HPCL are also using IPPL facilities at Haldia, BPCL wants to forge out and be independent because it sees a huge demand gap in the region.
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Details
 8The proposed project includes the followings:
 -- LPG import terminal to import 1.0 MMTA of propane and butane,
 -- Two refrigerated storage tanks of 15000 MT capacity,
 -- Propane and butane blending system,
 -- Four mounded bullets of 350 capacity each
 -- Facilities for LPG bottling ( 1+1), with a 24 point carousel plant and (1+1) 8 bay tank lorry loading gantry.
 
8Incoming power supply will be taken from WB State Electricity Board through an independent feeder to ensure uninterrupted power supply from grid.
 
8The power requirement for operation of the proposed twin transfer pipeline and LPG terminal of BPCL has been estimated to be 9834 KVA.
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Details
LPG will continue to remain a dominant fuel for cooking and heating for Indian households given the government's ambitious plans to increase use of LPG across the country.
 
8It is expected that there will be a shift in fuel usage pattern in rural India in the years ahead and the dependence on conventional cooking fuels like biogas, wood and kerosene will decline consistently.
  For those who are looking at this segment, the website carries here the following data:
 -- Past consumption pattern,
 -- Future demand and supply projections till 2023-2024,
 -- Zone-wise LPG demand-supply gap till 2023-2024,
 -- Imports Vs Indigenous production and export till 2013-2014,
 Click on the reports section for more details. 
Details
8The estimated cost of the proposed project is as under:
-- Main facilities (Unloading system, Storages, Electrical and Instrumentation, Bottling and Loading Plant) costing Rs 500 core.
-- Manufacturing facilities (Offsite and utilities, Land development, ROW, Supervision, Annual Lease) costing Rs 73 crore.
-- Miscellaneous cost( Engineering and PMC, Management cost ad others): Rs 66 crore.
-- Addition of interest during construction of around Rs 28 crore.
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Details
The environment ministry has stipulated that ONGC should earmark a massive Rs 1325 crore out of the Rs 53,000 crore investment proposed by ONGC for the KG-DWN-98/2 block for what is being termed as Enterprise Social Responsibility activity.
 
8A plan will have to drawn up by the district authorities in consultation with the local population on how to spend this money.
 
8Since this is an offshore project, it is not known yet whether the money should be earmarked for the company's nation-wise social responsibility programme or it should be locally spent in the land fall area.
 
8The project will have an onshore terminal at Odalarevu
 
8ONGC is meant to submit an action plan on using the money to the environment ministry.
 
8Clearly, this is a huge sum of money, and it is a moot point whether a project which is offshore in nature needs to set aside such a large sum of money under its Enterprise Social Responsibility programme, particularly when corporate CSR programmes are already in place.
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It looks like IOC's spare naphtha capacity is going to be consumed in its Panipat refinery's naphtha cracker plant.
 
8The naphtha produced in Panipat is not going to be enough for its cracker and nor will be the naphtha coming out of the Mathura refinery.
 
8So IOC is now going to ferry naphtha all the way from the Koyali refinery.
 
8The naphtha will pass through the Koyali-Sanganer pipeline (LSPL) in batches  to Jaipur, delivered to line balancing tanks (LBTs) at Jaipur and pumped towards Panipat through the existing Mundra Panipat Pipeline.
 
8The naphtha cracker has a capacity of 2900 TMT.
 
8The partial will be met through naphtha available at the Panipat refinery, and certain requirement from the Mathura refinery and remaining 800 TMT from the Koyali refinery.
 
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Last week the website advocated that ONGC should keep keep its Rs 53,000 crore investment in the KG-DWN-98/2 block on hold and instead look at acquiring oil and gas acreages abroad in terms of equity oil with the same amount of money.
 
8The website had proposed that it can add 10 times the reserves in the KG Basin block for the kind of money that the E&P major had lined up for investment.
 
8We had said that ONGC could even acquire a few small to mid cap E&P companies with ready reserves and production for that price too. Tallow Oil for example is going at a market cap of around $2 billion. ONGC can acquire a clutch of similar companies for the  $7.4 billion that it plans to invest in KG-DWN-98/2. It can hit the ground running with a production of up to 200,000 barrels of oil per day if not more with that kind of investment.
 
8For our readers analysis, the website carries here a complete primer on small and mid-cap oil and gas companies worldwide along with reasons why they make excellent investment choices at this point in time.
 
8Market prices of these companies have fallen by a fourth.
 
8Many of these E&P companies are currently trading at or below the value of their production and development (P&D) base, with the exploration potential not priced in by the market.
 
8These companies now make excellent value investments.
 
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The paper goes on to provide the example of how Shell is going ahead with its $72 billion takeover of BG's LNG assets for around $72 billion, at a roughly 50% premium.
 
8BG’s cheap asset value and operational synergies were the main reasons for the deal. However, Shell’s appraisal of BG’s intrinsic asset value assessment was based on a range of long term oil price assumptions, where Shell used Brent oil prices of $70 per barrel (2016), $90 per barrel (2017), and $110 per barrel (2018-2020) – a price deck that may not look as conservative today as prices fight to stay near $30 per barrel.
 
8Another good example of the gap between industry and equity market valuations is TAG Oil.
 
8At the time of writing, the company’s stock is trading between $0.33 to 0.60/share.
 
8Compare that to an estimated share price of $1.90/share of NPV10 after tax reserves value
 
8“NPV10” is commonly used in the energy industry to estimate the present value of a company’s proved oil and gas reserves: Present Value of Estimated Future Oil and Gas Revenues / Net of Estimated Direct Expenses / Discounted at an Annual Discount Rate of 10%.
 
8Clearly, companies like ONGC who can leverage cash from their balance sheets need to look at these investments. And then conduct a cost-benefit analysis of where it can elicit the best return, both in terms of reserves and returns.
 
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The website carries here a 125-page report on the status of pollution in Indian cities, with the focus primarily on Kolkata and Delhi.
 
8The study is essential reading for the downstream sector too, as severe "emergency" levels of pollution in these cities will require drastic policy solutions.
 
8The fact that the odd-even plan was successfully implemented, albeit temporarily, in Delhi means that people are willing to take in the discomfort that comes with harsh measures.
 
8The study also shows the cacogenic nature of the pollutants and creates a direct link between pollution, particularly with the increasing use of diesel, and the rise of cancers in Indian cities.
 
8The report calls for rationalization of taxes, claiming that in India, public transport is taxed higher than cars.
 
8An international analysis has shown that the demand for technological solutions will come not from central governments but from cities and municipalities such as Delhi and Beijing which are reeling under high levels of pollution.
 
8Beijing for example plans to have emission control norms for cars that are stricter than those of California. Subsidies on electric cars and hybrids will be driven by local rather than central governments.
 
8Delhi too is trying to carve out its own niche, independent of the country.
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The 125-page study makes out a case for reducing emissions from power plants and shifting from coal to gas based power to bring down pollution levels.
 
8While this trend is already evident in places like the US -- where shale gas is ridiculously cheap, like in Tennessee where the spot prices were just at $1.08 per million cubic feet late last year -- it is not known whether gas will ever replace coal in India or incremental power will be based on gas and not coal fired turbines.
 
8In the US, the coal market is in in economic free-fall with the government imposing new standards of emissions for power plants while imposing a three-year moratorium on new coal leases. Coal consumption has gone down by 18% in the last eight years.
 
8The coal industry is so badly squeezed that it is readying itself to accept a carbon tax instead of being regulated out of the market entirely.
 
8The Indian coal industry is in not in such crisis though there are reports that Coal India's stockpile is rising on account of depressed demand though the factors driving that is different from what is driving the US coal industry.
 
8Eventually, there will be no option but for India, like the rest of the world, to introduce a carbon tax.
 
8But will that bring gas back into the business in India? Unlikely, say cynics, as bulk of the gas will have to be imported, and landed cost of LNG is far too expensive for India to convert it into power.
 Click on Repots to figure out what is happening in the US coal market and how that can impact India's coal industry as well.
Details
The pipeline to transport naphtha to Panipat from Koyali is going to be 340 km long.
 
8The capacity of the pipeline will be 8000 hr/yr.
 
8The proposed naphtha pipeline will be used on a long term basis to deliver the product to Panipat.
 
8The pipeline would be partially laid in the existing RoW of IOC and rest through additional acquired RoW.
 
8The compensation for agricultural crop and for the acquired ROW will be given to the farmers during construction of pipeline. The owner of the stations (Mohanpura, Sanganer ,Rewari and Panipat) is IOCL.
 
8The proposed pipeline will go through Rajasthan and Haryana, with pumping stations at Jaipur  Rewari and Panipat.
 
8Construction activities will start after all statutory clearances, including environmental clearance of the project, are granted. Total time schedule for the project is 30 months after receipt of statutory clearance.
 
8Total cost of the proposed project is estimated as Rs. 611.53 Crore including foreign exchange of Rs.18.85 Crore, at December 2014 price level.
 
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