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Apr 2016

GAIL's cargoes are uncompetitive for the global market at the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal itself  before they are loaded on to its LNG carriers in early 2018 if end prices continue to remain low.
 
8The deal is for offtake of 3.5 MMTPA of LNG by paying a fixed cost of $3/mmbtu and a gas cost pegged at 115% of the Henry Hub price.
 
8Assuming a Henry Hub price of $2/mmbtu, the cost is more than $5/mmbtu at the outer flange of the Sabine Pass terminal itself.
 
8This is a possible scenario when the spot ex-ship gas price in India is likely to hover at around $4/mmbtu or even less around 2018 because of the likely glut in the market.
 
8GAIL has committed to pay a massive $584 million per year as fixed annual fees to buy 182,500,000 mmbtu of LNG from the Sabine Pass terminal itself. Similar pro rate payments have to be also made for 2.3 MMTPA from the Cove Point terminal.
 
8Total yearly recurring fixed payments will be a whopping $ 1 billion.
 Click here for more information.
Details
The swiftness with which the LNG markets have changed can be judged from the rejection by US regulators last month of an application for the construction of the Jordan Cove LNG terminal in Oregon, US, as well as a pipeline that would feed the terminal with natural gas for liquefaction.
8The rejection was on the ground that the company had not yet demonstrated sufficient commercial support for the projects.
8This is a dramatic change from two years ago when US regulators were unsure of giving permissions to export LNG on the ground that the US may not have enough gas to export.
8It is now the other way round entirely.
8Permissions are being denied because of lack of global demand rather than any constraint in the domestic US market.
8The surprising decision highlighted the difficulties that future LNG projects in North America will have in getting off the ground in the absence of being able to attain supply agreements with customers in a bearish market
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Details
As of February 2016, there were already 16 LNG liquefaction approvals given by the DOE, with a further 30 under review, for a total of 47.2 bcf/d in the regulatory pipeline.
 
8This is a massive volume and the scale of its can adjudged from the fact that it exceeds the total amount of global LNG exported in 2015.
 
8And this is the reason why permissions are now being withheld.
 
8Nearly 83 MMTPA of liquefaction capacity has been approved, of which all should have begun construction by 2019.
 
8This would put the US ahead of Qatar (currently the leading LNG exporter) in terms of liquefaction capacity, as the Gulf state has a capacity of approximately 77 million MMTPA.
 
8By the end of this decade, Australia will have approximately 85 MMTPA in liquefaction capacity, with five projects having come online since 2012 and a further three currently under construction.
 
8By 2020, therefore, the three largest LNG exporters will be Australia, the US and Qatar.
 Click here for more information.
Details
A series of developments on the global oil and gas front have worked together to transform GAIL's investment in buying 5.8 MMTPA of LNG capacity in the US into the very risky category.
 
8But when the decision to commit this capacity was taken it could well have seemed right.
 
8GAIL had thought it would deliver the LNG to India on the assumption that oil prices wouldl still rule at $100/bbl and the Indian market, dominated by oil-index pricing, would be a  lucrative one for a prospective seller of LNG.
 
8The shale gas boom had caused US domestic Henry Hub (HH) prices to slump in the early part of this decade, so even accounting for liquefaction and transport costs, there were healthy profit margins if the wide price differentials between US and Asian natural gas persisted.
 
8In February 2013, US HH gas prices were at US$3.32/mmbtu, but the landed LNG price was $15.70/mmbtu in India.
 
8With Japan – the largest LNG importer -- shutting down its entire nuclear capacity following the Fukushima disaster, China and India constructing substantial LNG capacity, and Europe seeking to diversify from its dependence on Russia by building regasification capacity -- GAIL thought its LNG cargoes from the US would enter the Indian market at a very opportune moment.
 
8Nearly 50 LNG export proposals were submitted for US regulators' approval and GAIL got caught up in the enthusiasm, deciding to book 3.5 MMTPA of capacity with the Sabine Pass terminal and another 2.3 MMTPA from the Cove Point terminal by committing to pay nearly $  billion in fixed annual charges.
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Details
For reference purposes, the website carries here the details of the submissions made on the common carrier guidelines by:
 GAIL
 
8Mahanagar Gas
 
8Indraprastha Gas
 
8Sabarmati Gas
 
8Clarus Law Associates
 
8Gujarat Gas
 
8GAIL Gas
 Click here for more information. 
Details
The main thrust of the argument by CGD companies is that they are natural monopolies in their areas of operations and imposition of common carrier principles will be in violation of the PNGRB Act.
 
8The common carrier definition can only be applied to natural gas pipelines but not to CGD companies, the argument goes.
 
8There is severe opposition for provision of a 20% additional capacity within the CGD network for contract carrier purposes.
 
8The Act does provide for access to the CGD network to a third party, the CGD entities claim, but the definition of that access is different from the requirements of the common carrier principle should to be imposed by the PNGRB.
 
8Another argument claims that the regulator has no right to affect changes in the rules governing the functioning of CGD entitles which had already been authorized by the central government.
 
8There are some who argue that the regulations should be prospectively implemented.
 
8Yet others claim that the common carrier principle is contrary to the exclusivity provisions granted to CGD companies.
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Details
The PNGRB's draft guidelines for declaring CGD networks as common contract carriers have met with strident opposition from existing players.
 
8There is a fear that CGD players will lose their monopoly positions and they have filed a number of legal arguments against the draft guidelines.
 
8Another long round of charges and counter-charges is likely to further vitiate the already taut relationship between the regulator and the CGD companies.
 
8If PNGRB were to insist on going through with the new guidelines, there is likely to be a rash of court cases.
 
8Eventually, it will be the courts which will decide on whether CGD networks can become common contract carriers.
 Click here for more information. 
Details
Cairn India Ltd witnessed a 4% decline in crude and gas output in 2015-16.
 The following declines were witnessed in the average daily gross operated production for the year:
 
8Rajasthan: -3%
 
8Ravva: -8%
 
8Cambay: -3%
 
8Rajasthan production declined 3% due to reservoir underperformance at the Bhagyam field.
 
8Gas production however from the Rajasthan block increased to an average rate of 27 mmscfd from 16 mmscfd, surpassing our guidance of 25 mmscfd  for 2015-16.
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Details
The transition to a low carbon world in which the temperature rise is limited to 2°C would still require continued large-scale investment in oil and gas.
 
8That’s because even if demand for oil declines sharply and that for gas increases only moderately during the transition, the world will still need investments to compensate for the two-thirds decline in output from current fields.
 
8Such a decline in production will be far more rapid that anything seen or foreseeable on the demand side.
 
8This line of argument says that large scale investments will continue in the oil and gas sector in the future if sharp spikes in prices are to be avoided.
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Details
The latest Baker Hughes rig count shows the current number of active crude rigs in US shale gas sites at just 22% of what it was at its highest level.
 
8With declining crude production levels, further fall in rig counts will support higher crude oil prices.
 
8Apart from this, a better outcome is expected from the April 17 Doha meet where Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to do a deal to curtail crude output to support prices.
 
8The Russians believe that new crude oil average should be at least around $50/bbl. Last week, the Latin American crude oil producers held a meeting too to look at ways to shore up crude prices.
 
8Eventually whether a cartel can pushe prices higher remains a moot point, for higher prices will entice the American shale gas producers to begin deploying more rigs again. By some estimates, at a price above $40/bbl, the rig count in likely to begin going up.
 
8Iran meanwhile is happily pumping away as much crude as possible.
 
8It is exporting around 350,000 barrels per day to India.
 
8Many Indian refiners like, HMEL, Reliance and Essar booked have booked all time high consignments of Iranian crude in recent times.
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Details
The PNGRB's intent on getting the CGD entities into the common carrier bandwagon is to allow competition in the delivery of services to the door step of the individual industrial and household customer.
 
8Competition usually assures better services and lower prices.
 
8To that extent, the draft guidelines will eventually be customer friendly.
 
8The counter argument to this is that if competitors are allowed to take advantage of the already built pipeline networks, even though it will be after a five year exclusivity period, investors will not want to build these networks in the first place.
 
8Players want to guard their monopoly over the networks they built. What they are willing to be regulated over is the right to access such a network by a third party for delivery of product but not to the common carrier principle that will allow competitors the right to use the network to ferry gas to the end customers.
 
8Monopolies always distort pricing to their advantage and it is necessary for the public to support the PNGRB's battle against the CGD companies.
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Details
Petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan will return from Iran without a deal in hand for the Farzad B field nor commitments for assured gas supply at concessional gas prices for Indian fertilizer and petrochemical projects.
8Some would believe that the trip was badly timed because full clarity was still not there on the new Model Iranian Petroleum Contract based on which the Farzad B field was meant to be awarded to ONGC Videsh Ltd. The Contract was under attack from conservative sections of the Iranian power structure and the Iranian Parliament was still to approve the draft.
8So it was only natural for the Iranians to take resource to the argument that a commitment on the terms and conditions for the handover of the field was not possible before the model contract was approved by the Majlis.
8But Pradhan would argue that this was a good time to assert India's position on the Farzad field when the rules of selection of foreign investors were still getting clarified.
8The new contract is a big improvement over the earlier model contract but the terms are still very stringent. Clearly however ONGC believes that it can live with the rules and commit to spending a vast sum of the money in the field. And Pradhan's big victory was a reassurance by the Iranians to India's claim for first right to the field
8But Pradhan should also not be surprised if the Iranians backtrack on some of the groundwork he had laid for the handover of the field.
8Nine years ago, Mani Shankar Aiyar had returned triumphant from Tehran with a deal to set up an LNG project. The price of gas was agreed but soon thereafter the Iranians switched their position and sought a higher gas price and the deal fell through.
Click on Details for more
Details
The release of the eagerly awaited draft Iranian Petroleum Contract model (the IPC) had buoyed ONGC's hopes of investing in the Farzad B field as also the outcome of the recent Iranian elections in February.
 
8Up to this point there has been little clarity as to whether the new model contract (originally announced during a conference held in Tehran in November 2015) would be officially released, after a series of protests from hard-line political rivals of President Rouhani threatening to obstruct its passage through the Iranian parliament (the Majlis).
 
8A coalition of centrists – a diverse group of reformists, moderates and pragmatic conservatives – have made significant gains against conservative hardliners in the recent elections to both the parliament and the 'Assembly of Experts'.
 
8This shift towards a more centrist political position and the increased representation for moderates in both houses is expected to consolidate President Rouhani’s hold on power and put him in a stronger position to seek a second term in 2017.
 
8The new parliament’s alignment with the President is likely to lead to greater consensus over economic policy and regulation affecting upstream (both exploration and production) activities in the oil and gas sector, including the IPC.
 
8But even the new model contract is not like the Indian Production Sharing Contract. It has stringent preconditions though they are a huge improvement over the earlier version. Cost overruns will now be allowed and the pricing structure is a further refinement over the Iraqi contract. The ownership structures have also been modified and framing in by local partners will be at their cost and will be not be carried over by the operator.
 
8There is however still not enough clarity on the tendering process, management structure, commercialization, remuneration structure, reserves and lender security, pricing model, cost recovery, dispute resolution and application of local laws.
 Click on Details for more
Details
No one knows the Iranians better than the Americans whose embassy in Teheran was stormed and its staff taken prisoner by the Revolutionary Guards. It is the US which is now pussyfooting on adhering to some of the terms of the agreement that lead to the lifting of sanctions. As a consequence, western banks are still reluctant to deal with Iran, making it difficult for India to transfer $ 6.5 billion in unpaid dues for crude bought from Iran
 
8And what Pradhan would have sensed in Tehran was that while the Germans -- for whom the Iranians have a particular fascination -- and the French, and even the Chinese, were the most enthusiastic about investing in Iran, the Americans were more circumspect.
 
8Some skeptics would argue that it would just take one election and a change in the composition of the Majlis for the Iranians to start singing a different tune on the Iranian Petroleum Contract which could find ONGC holding a dead asset in hand.
 
8But this website is not advocating that India should not invest in Iran, The Indian government however should be more realistic when dealing with it
 
8When the world is beating a path to Tehran, India just cannot be left behind. Geopolitically Iran is of great interest to India. But New Delhi should not expect any special treatment -- based on the premise that it bought Iranian crude and supported Iran's cause in the face of western sanctions -- either by way of a relaxation in the rules of business for the Farzad field or through a concession in the price of gas for an LNG project or for JVs in Iran for manufacture of fertilizers and petrochemicals.
 
8The Iranians have their own way of defining the rules of the game and New Delhi will just have to get used to it.
 Click on Details for more
Details
A flurry of investments has revived the interest of equipment and service suppliers in the fertilizer industry. The industry is active after decades of stagnancy. Investments worth around Rs 45,000 crore is on the anvil not just in ammonia-urea complexes, but also in other assorted non-urea fertilizer units and maintenance activity.
8And no one is better qualified to track these changes than our sister site www.indianfertilizer.com. The site is the only one of its kind in India catering to the information needs of the fertilizer industry and has been in existence for the last 15 years. All major urea companies, raw material and finished fertilizer suppliers, equipment and service providers, banks, financial institutions and stock brokerages subscribe to the site.
8We have now tailor made a new product that identifies specific business development opportunities for equipment and service providers in the segment.
8We will provide future RFQ dates -- well before they are formally announced -- for all fertilizer projects in India along with key contacts of the owners or the projects management consultants or EPC contractors or package contractors as the case may be.
8We track a project right from inception, going through equipment and utility analysis, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, site selection, capital approval, basic engineering, detailed engineering, contracting, installation, pre-commissioning and commissioning stages. We follow a project continuously, alerting our subscribers to every development, particularly when an RFQ opportunity emerges.
8This is invaluable information for the equipment and service provider as he gets to establish a relationship with the buyer well before formal tenders are announced.
8Tell us the equipment you manufacture or the service that you provide, and we will keep track of the future RFQ dates for it across the fertilizer industry.
8What is more, we will provide every subscriber with an analyst whom he can call up should he require an additional bit of information or clarification on a project.
Go to our site www.indianfertilizer.com now
Details
With Brent prices now ~$15/bbl off their YTD lows, it seems line values are bottoming out.
 
8Yet the oil price path in 2016 is still littered with uncertainties and near-term fundamental challenges can push oil prices lower in the 2Q 2016.
 
8The supply-side rebalancing is underway but the market is not out of the woods just yet.
 
8Oil markets still have to navigate through the upcoming maintenance seasons in Europe and Asia before the expected summer support arrives.
 
8Indeed, the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself but the view is that oil prices should trade in the $40’s during the summer and can reach above $50/bbl by year-end.
 Click here for more information.
Details
We have put together India's most comprehensive information site --- www.indianpetrochem.com -- on the booming petrochemical and chemical industry in India.
8While other energy or oil and gas related businesses are going through transformative changes, the petrochemical industry is all set to take off and boom in India on account of low per capita consumption.
8The website provides daily price information on a wide range of chemical and petrochemicals products from across 13 Indian cities with the help of scouts, analysts and journalists.
8We source and collect prices through our wide network of relationships and contacts from major international hubs. Global prices have an impact as India imports a lot of raw material and products.
Go to our Products & Services page on the site for more information on our entire range of products which include:
8Weekly advisories which provide short term market price and demand-supply forecasts along with insights on market movements
8Market reports which provide comprehensive analyses of individual chemical and petrochemical products.
8Forecasts on demand and prices based on economic modeling
8Business development opportunities for equipment and services providers in the petrochemical industry
8Key contacts
8Project updates
8Plant shutdowns
8Daily News
8Daily bulletins
8Trade statistics
8Consulting services
Click here to go to our site. Register here for a free five-day trial
Details
The government is turning to people than within itself for grand ideas that will make a difference to India.
 
8In what has been termed as the Grand Innovation Challenge, NITI Aayog is seeking the views of the citizens on the key challenges facing India, across areas significant for the country’s development.
 
8The idea is to find out from the people what are the critical issues which need to be addressed to develop the social sector and the challenges which need to be tackled on a priority basis.
 
8A shortlist of the urgent challenges as suggested by citizens would be prepared and innovative solutions would be sought from the people to address them using appropriate technology. The idea is to encourage innovation, entrepreneurship and citizen-led solutions specifically designed for India, made in India, and adopted by Government of India to radically develop India.
 
8So if you have an idea of how to transform the oil and gas industry in India, submit them to NITI Aayog. April 25 is the deadline.
 Click here for more information.
Details
Oil India Ltd has begun preparation for the spudding of its offshore well in the Cauvery block Cy-OSN-2009/2 next month
 
8Thee drilling exercise will be conducted using the Transocen rig GSF Rig 140 in the block at the day rate of $158,000
 
8OIL is reported to have allocated $60 million for the one-well programme.
 
8The rig has been hired from April to August, 2016.
 Click on Details for more.
 Click here for report.
  
Details
Well placed sources said that RIL had placed an order for a Transocean rig for the KG-D-6 block
8A two-well sidetracking exercise will be undertaken in the MA crude-cum-gas field.
8The side tracking will be done for two associated gas wells in the field.
8Meanwhile, no decision has been taken yet on the next course of action on getting RIL's KG basin deepwater discoveries to production.
8Currently RIL abd BP are looking at design changes in its earlier plans in order to arrive at the optimal equipment and service mix
8RFQ dates are not out yet
Click on Details for more on the name of the rig, day rate and spudding date. This website will keep you informed of all future RFQ dates in the KG Basin development.
Click here for report.
  
Details
The fact that the decision to rope in the public sector to set up the three ammonia-urea units was taken in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) in the presence of the Fertiliser Minister Ananth Kumar, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and Power & Coal Minister Piyush Goyal is indicative of the political will of the government to go ahead with these units.
 
8For without these anchor units, GAIL's trunk Jagdishpur-Haldia pipeline that cuts right through the Hindi heartland was not turning out to be viable.
 
8Reviving these units will send the right political signal to crucial vote banks ahead of forthcoming elections, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.
 
8The pipeline will also help push the government's CNG and PNG programmes across a wide swathe of North India and West Bengal, creating both industrial activity and the right political buzz for the BJP.
 
8The cost economics probably came second in the government's calculations.
 
8The essential point to note while promoting these gigantic fertilizer units is that India does not have the comparative advantage of making fertilizers in India because the cost of gas is too expensive compared to manufacturing hubs around the world.
 
8But South Block's calculation is that in a situation of over supply, the landed cost of gas will be low enough for Indian manufacturing to be viable.
 Click on Details for more on how the government's take on the subject 
Details
The Prime Minister's Office has acted to create a demand for around 7.2 mmscmd of gas by ordering ONGC, Oil India Ltd and Coal India Ltd to revive the defunct fertilizer units at Goakhpur in UP, Barauni in Bihar and Sindri in Jharkhand (look up our Newsclip section for more details)
 
8The point to note however is that the government had to step in after there was lukewarm response to notices inviting bids for these units from the fertilizer industry. Only two companies had put in bid: Matix -- which is struggling to set up a new unit in West Bengal based on CBM to be supplied from Essar's Raniganj field  -- for the Gorakhpur unit and the Adani group for the Sindri unit.
 
8The point to note is why was there no response to the bids from the established domestic urea industry, made up Tata Chemicals, Nagarjuna Industries, Indo Gulf, Iffco and Kribhco? Why is the indigenous urea industry still skeptical of the government's plans to establish new urea-ammonia complexes?
 
8So far only the two public sector fertilizer companies -- RCF and NFL -- have been involved in setting up new units, perhaps under goading from the government.
 
8date, except for Chambal Fertilizers, the entire exercise to build new plants is pushed by public money.
 Click on Details for six reasons behind this skepticism.
Details
GMR plans to use 0.85 mmscmd of gas for its internal consumption in the two power plants.
 
8This means that GMR is assuming a 100% capacity utilization of the two gas based power plants
 
8This is clearly a game changing dynamic when the government's attempt is to get them to go to less than 50% capacity utilization under the LNG auction route.
 
8GMR claims that it plans to utilize its gas based power plants in the "most optimal manner possible".
 
8The fact that GMR is independently bringing in the LNG and using it captively for its power plants means that it is not looking at the government for any kind of support.
 
8The GMR model may end up disproving the notion that LNG based power supply is not feasible in India.
 
8The company's calculations are based on the assumption that LNG prices are likely hover at low levels for a reasonably long period of time given the current supply glut coupled with slowdown in demand in the major consuming countries of Japan, China and Korea.
 
8GMR claims that it will be able to sell the rest of the LNG to other power plants in the region.
 
8It is also planning to ship LNG in trucks to industries in a 400 km radius from Kakinanda as building pipelines is not a feasible proposition.
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Details
What Pradhan must actively encourage is a gas pipeline from Iran to India.
 
8An overland pipeline is the best option even if Pakistan is an unreliable player.
 
8And if Pakistan remains completely intransigent, an undersea pipeline in which the Iranians also have a big stake is a feasible option.
 
8This website believes that India must push for cross-country gas pipelines even if the risks are high.
 
8These pipelines must be pushed at all costs.
 
8This website had argued in great detail in the past that the India must build transnational pipelines even if the financial and security risks are big as it will help the country to pit pipeline suppliers with those of LNG to elicit better gas prices.
 
8Europe does this to great benefit while negotiating with Russia for pipeline gas supply even as its LNG terminals remain empty..
 
8The sunk cost of such pipelines, while providing a return on its own, will also provide spinoffs in terms of lower gas prices on LNG deals on account of a stronger bargaining position.
Click here  for full report on how transnational pipelines help lower the overall cost of gas for a country
Details
Petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan is embarking on a journey to Iran with a big entourage, including representatives from the fertilizer and petrochemical industries.
 
8Apart from heads and officials from public sector oil and gas, fertilizers, shipping and metal companies, representatives of private Indian companies involved in petroleum, petrochemicals and fertilizers sectors will also be traveling along with Pradhan as part of a FICCI delegation.
 
8But Pradhan should be warned not to over commit himself in Iran.
 
8The Iranians are known to be remarkably fickle when it comes to keeping promises. It must be remembered that they walked away from a deal to supply LNG to India not long after it was signed on the ground that the agreed price of gas was too low.
 
8On India's participation in the Farzad B field too, there must be some radical thinking. Will it be just a service contract or will Indian companies have a charge on the considerable reserves in the field?
 
8Then again, if OVL were to have captive use of the Farzad-B gas via an LNG project or two, the question of offloading the LNG in an over supplied market where predatory pricing will be increasingly resorted too must also be addressed.
 
8The oversupply situation is likely to persist until the year 2030, according to some estimates.
 
8In fact the whole question of looking for equity oil abroad must be readdressed given the fact that the world has entered a new phase of oversupply of oil and gas that is likely to last for a decade or two, according to new estimates. It is already established that the world's gas reserves will last for 200 years and oil 150 years.
 
8Is there any point in looking for equity investments when suppliers are knocking on Indian ports with cheap oil and gas that makes revival of domestic gas based power and fertilizer units viable again?
 
8Will these investments yield a positive return on investment in an over supply scenario?
 
8The global market can perhaps do a much more efficient job of converting reserves into production than Indian companies can through their investments abroad. The $5 billion spent in Mozambique -- which is currently a dead investment -- is one glaring example.
Click here for more information.
Details
With recent reduction in domestic gas prices, CNG’s competitiveness vis-à-vis auto fuels will improve and the payback period for passenger vehicles for conversion to CNG vehicles will decline.
 
8In the case of PNG (domestic), the impact is likely to be more significant as PNG (domestic) has had relatively low acceptance among consumers due to the lower energy cost of LPG (domestic), which is still heavily subsidised.
 
8Successive cuts in PNG (domestic) prices in last 1-1.5 years following lower domestic gas prices have improved its competitiveness against subsidised LPG on an energy equivalent basis.
 
8If LPG (domestic) prices remain unchanged and PNG (domestic) prices are cut by Rs 2/scm, it would cost 10-12% lower than subsidized LPG in terms of energy cost.
 
8Thus, in the case of both segments, CNG and PNG (domestic), the competitive advantage of gas over alternative fuels will improve and this augurs well for new demand creation.
 
8CGD players, while retaining their contribution margins, should benefit by way of volume growth in the CNG and PNG (domestic) segments.
 
8The other two segments, PNG (Industrial) & PNG (Commercial), which are being serviced by the industry through sourcing of R-LNG would also be impacted by the decline in LNG prices.
Click here for more information.
Details
For reference purposes, the website carries here details of the impact of the recent fall in pooled gas prices on the subsidy that is dispensed to the fertilizer industry.
 
8It is estimated that for a fall of every US$ 1/mmbtu in gas price, the retention price of urea would reduce by Rs. 1800-2000/tonne.
 
8Lower subsidy for the industry would in turn lead to lower working capital borrowings for the companies and enable them to reduce their interest cost.
 
8Further, lower pooled gas prices would favourably impact the profitability of revamped urea capacities earning import parity based pricing.
 
8Also, the profitability of producers of non-urea fertilizers such as ammonium nitro-phosphate would improve.
 
8Additionally, chemicals manufactured by integrated fertilizer-chemicals complexes may also witness improvement in profitability as cost of production will decrease while their prices are generally driven by international prices of these chemicals.
Click here for more information.
Details
The fall in price of LNG and the supply glut has opened up exciting business models for the Indian industry.
 
8LNG suppliers in desperate lookout for markets to sell can be coaxed to take up stakes in end industries in India or fine tune the price of gas in a manner that these industries remain viable.
 
8Suppliers will be keen to find captive demand for LNG in a buyers market.
 
8Such dynamics can come into play in the fertilizer industry, which is a big guzzler of gas.
 
8A standard ammonia-urea unit consumes about 2.4 mmscmd of gas.
 
8The cost economics of such units looks good as India faces the choice of either setting up fertilizer units in India or import fertilizers from abroad.
 
8Currently the industry is under a gas pooling regime but it can be dismantled once the direct benefit subsidy programme for urea takes off.
 
8Each standard ammonia-urea unit costs Rs 6000 crore and already a handful of them is under construction, including one in the private sector.
 
8There is still a reasonable amount of skepticism in the fertilizer industry over viability of new units, more on account of vagaries of the government's subsidy dispensation unit -- including the lack of promise on buyback of urea -- than on the question of supply of gas.
Click here for more information.
Details
Just to be able to put the project in context, the website also carries here a report on the cost economics of gas based power in India.
8With downward revision in domestic gas price in April 2016, the overall cost of domestic gas based power generation is estimated at 3.5 Rs/kwh for a standard power plant, which reflects a decline of about 9% over that with gas at earlier delivered cost of about US$5.2/mmbtu.
8For every US$1/mmbtu increase in cost of gas, cost of generation shows an increase of 50 paise/unit, under the assumption of prevailing exchange rate, while for depreciation of INR against USD by 1 INR, cost of generation shows an increase of 4 paisa/unit.
8As a result, cost of power generation will remain vulnerable to volatility in gas prices internationally as well as the INR-USD exchange rate.
Also carried here are details on:
-- Capacity utilization of gas based power in India
-- Cost competitiveness of domestic gas in relation to coal
-- Cost of power generation using different fuel mix scenarios
-- Salient features of the government's subsidy scheme
-- Viability of gas based power in India in the context of low cost of domestic coal
Click here for more information.
Details
The project will provide business development opportunities for equipment and service providers.
 The following components are involved in the project:
 
8LNG Storage and transportation
 
8Onshore Insulated Cryogenic Pipeline
 
8LNG Regasification Facility
 
8Control room
 
8Pig receiver and launcher/filter
 
8Pressure control system
 
8Metering Skid
 
8Pipeline for connectivity to existing gas distribution grid
Click here for more information.
Details
The cost variation in the LNG project -- in one location within the Kakinada port, the cost comes to Rs 471 crore while in another it will be Rs 651 crore -- is on account of variation in technology.
 
8If the terminal is set up within GMR's barge mounted power plant at one end of the port, a hot Hot Water Bath Regasification System with work with a Fan Forced Ambient Air Vaporizer.
 
8The re-gasified LNG in the form of high pressure natural gas will then be transferred to the custody metering station and into the gas grid
 
8The alternate location in the port too will also generate high pressure LNG that will use high pressure stainless steel lined aluminum finned fan forced ambient air cryogenic vaporizers.
 
8The tanker loading terminal however will receive low pressure LNG through the low pressure stream from the LNG centrifugal pumps connected to the flat bottom storage tank.
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GMR has tied up with LNG Express India Pvt Ltd to set up the LNG terminal and also to deliver LNG to industrial customers through trucks.
 The idea seems to be to provide gas to all kinds of users including:
 -- Micro users who will get gas filled at  250 bar in cylinder pallets for daily requirement
 -- Mini users who will receive gas at 250 bar in cylinder banks and micro-bulk solutions
 -- Medium scale user who can access LNG mini-bulk storage tanks on portable frames for swapping with the company's Hub & Spoke stations
 -- "Quantum users" who are given an LNG bulk installation on sale on BOOM basis that also includes delivery of LNG under a PESO license.
 
8LNG Express India will act as a solution provider with a combination of packages so as to ensure that the capex and opex are suitable to the customer.
 
8The idea is to deliver gas at a price cheaper than alternate fuels.
 
8As far as the GMR project is concerned, the loading terminal will receive low pressure LNG with the help of a low pressure stream of LNG centrifugal pumps connected to a flat bottom storage tank.
 
8The terminal will enable loading LNG into tankers of of 40 and 50 m3 weighting 20 MT each for onward transmission to end use customers. The tankers plying on the road will comply with required safety standards, codes, regulations and performance.
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For reference purposes, the website carries here the full details of the procedures to be followed by outside contractors while deploying their personnel in Indian public sector refineries.
 
8The prohibited acts are specified as well as a prohibited set of items that personnel should not carry inside
 
8Entry and exit procedures are spelt out
 
8Documentation required for such passes is specified
 
8The entire set of safety procedures to be followed are documented
 
8The hot and cold work permit procedures are clearly laid down
 
8All emergency procedures are also explained
 
8Statutory OISD guidelines are spelt out too
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After an initial round of informal RFQs, ONGC has began the formal process of looking for equipment and service providers for its Rs 34,000 crore investment in the KG Basin block KG-DWN-98/2 block.
 
8Currently the company is on the look out for a contractor for well engineering services. The agency will be responsible for designing, engineering and reviewing information available for exploratory and development wells.
 
8Based on it, the contractor will provide optimized drilling programmes and methodology for drilling and completion of wells complying with latest practices
 
8The agency will also be responsible for forecasting and planning for materials and service requirements.
 
8It will work as a logistics coordinator between ONGC, the rig contractor and various other third party service providers.
 
8It will also supervise all drilling operations for the block.
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Details
ONGC has come out with a seismic survey programme for its onland blocks.
 The details of the programme are given in terms of:
 
8Name of the area
 
8Survey type
 
8Acquisition system
 
8Size of the area
 
8Number of active channels
 
8Planned shots
 
8Planned shot hole drilling
 
8MGS
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Details
Will GMR's captive LNG plant challenge the model that the government is using to subsidize the use of gas to produce power?
 
8There is no doubt that power plants using 100% domestic coal remain the most viable but the cost competitiveness of domestic gas based power projects has started improving over the last few months when compared to competitively bid tariffs for thermal based projects and projects using imported coal power.
 
8In fact, negative subsidy rates were witnessed in the LNG auction taken out in March by the government to kick start stranded gas based power plants.
 
8GMR is actually trying to kill two birds with one stone.
 
8If for any reason the price of LNG fluctuates in a manner that makes its use in the gas plants unviable, then it will start merchandising the gas.
 
8This is one reason why it wants to sell half the LNG to third parties.
 
8The transportation of LNG via trucks is another way to deliver LNG to consumers.
 
8If the power plants remain idle, then energies will be concentrated towards finding industrial customers for the LNG.
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In what can be a game changing move, GMR Holdings Ltd has decided to set up a 1.75 MMTPA LNG regasification unit at the Kakinada port which will supply gas to two of the group's power plants.
 
8GMR has a 220 MW barge mounted power plant near Kakinanda and a 1138 MW gas based power plants at Vemagiri.
 
8The company claims that low spot prices have encouraged the company to set up the LNG plant.
 
8Two locations within the port are being investigated to site the plant.
 
8The cost of the unit in one location is going to be just Rs 471 crore while in another it will be Rs 651 crore.
 
8And the time taken to put up the regasification facility will be just six months.
 
8Medium to small sized LNG carriers -- with capacities of up to 90,000 cubic meters  -- will berth at the facility.
 
8The company looked at two other scenarios -- both envisaged using larger 125,000 to 150,000 cubic metre facilities and then using feeder vessels to bring the LNG in -- but eventually these ideas were abandoned.
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An investment in a cross border pipeline will always make money if the security risks are neutralized.
 
8Ferrying gas through a pipeline still remains the cheapest option for India, according to a recent study.
 
8The study compares the cost of an onland pipeline with that of supplying the same quantity of gas through the LNG route and an undersea pipeline from Iran and finds the land route to be the cheapest.
 
8Because there is no liquefaction and regasification cost involved, it saves around $4/mmbtu.
 
8The study assumes a transportation cost of $2.25/mmbtu for the deepwater pipeline in comparison to the LNG ferrying cost of 0.5/mmbtu from Iran, $1/mmbtu from other parts of Asia and $2.25/mmbtu from the US.
 
8It is only with the onland pipeline from Iran that there are no other charges except a transportation cost of $2.35/mmbtu, which makes it the cheapest option to bring in gas.
 
8The same logic can be extended to TAPI, though the transportation cost is expected to be higher because a longer distance has to be traversed. Also provision of adequate security will ratchet up the cost significantly.
 
8Even then, gas from Turkmenistan is expected to arrive in India at a competitive price
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How cheaply are the Iranians willing to provide gas to India for fertilizer and petrochemical units to be set up in Iran?
 
8The cost economics will have to be seen in terms of overall global competitiveness
 
8Huge petrochemical and urea capacities are now springing up all over the Gulf, particularly in the Gulf.
 
8Will Indian units in Iran be able to compete against them?
 
8The oil and gas dynamics are changing rapidly, and any investor will have to be prudent while investing his money.
 
8The volatile nature of Iranian politics, and its known fickleness in holding on to its end of the bargain are also factors that must be taken into account before business decisions are taken.
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Details
The website carries here a detailed progress report on all Petroleum, Chemical and Petrochemical Investment Regions in the country with the following parameters:
 
8Date of approval
 
8Total area
 
8Anchor client
 
8Refinery or cracker capacity
 
8Anchor project status
 
8Total projects approved
 
8Proposed investment
 
8Investment made
 
8Environment clearances obtained
 For reference purposes, the website carries here product-wise installed capacity of major chemicals and petrochemicals in the country
 Year-wise production details are also carried here along with growth rates

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India has drawn up plans to invest a massive Rs 70,000 crore in development of port facilities around its vast coastline.
 
8Many of them involve development of LNG and liquid petroleum product handling facilties.
 The website carries here the following details on these ports:
 
8Name of the port
 
8Project proponent
 
8Project type
 
8Tentative cost estimates
 
8Comprehensive project details
 
8Project status
 
8Land requirement
 
8Key contact
 
8In all there are 36 projects
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Details
For reference purposes, the website carries here a comparison of delivery prices of competing fuels to customers in India.
8Subsequent to the sharp fall in the price of LNG, spot LNG now is cheaper than naphtha and fuel oil (price assumed at $40 per barrel).
8It is also significantly cheaper than contract LNG delivered from RasGas
8Only imported coal (assumed to be $60/tonne) and domestic gas is cheaper than spot LNG at the moment.
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India’s total gas consumption was just shy of 5 bcf/day, quite low compared to other major gas markets, such as the U.S. at 70 bcf/day, the European Union at 40  bcf/day and China at 20 bcf/day.
8On a per capita basis, the gap is even starker: India is consuming 2% of what the U.S. consumes, 8% of what the EU consumes, and 28% of what China consumes.
8This has been driven by a lack of supply and infrastructure as well as the more attractive economics of other fuels.
8However, adjusting for wealth effects, India’s gas consumption is more in line with China, Japan and the EU.
8This leads to the conclusion that as India’s income per capita converges with other countries over time, so should its consumption of natural gas.
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Details
An optimistic gas demand scenario speaks of India’s gas consumption growing at approximately 17% compounded annual rate over the next five years, versus 5% over the past 10 years.
 
8This is based on a continuation of the underlying 5% structural demand growth (due to GDP and population) to which latent demand growth from various industries that have been starved of gas because of high prices and limited availability is added.
 Among the reasons which will spur growth are:
 
8Fertilizer: The country’s domestic urea sector consumes 1.5bcf/day of natural gas, but India still imports around 25% of the total urea it requires despite domestic urea plants maintaining spare capacity. A recent government initiative to pool LNG imports with cheap domestic gas and supply to the fertilizer sector could lead to a 17% increase in incremental domestic urea production almost immediately. If India eventually becomes self-sufficient in urea production, it would increase LNG imports by 3.7 mtpa versus today. This would be in addition to long-term demand growth from the underlying fertilizer market as Indian food consumption grows over time.
 
8Power: India is only using about 22% of its gas-fired capacity. With access to cheap LNG imports, the utilization rate could go up to 50%. This incremental online capacity would require 7 mtpa of gas, which represents a 20% increase in India’s gas consumption. If the country could get its gas-based power-generation capacity to 75%, this would require 13 mtpa of incremental LNG imports. But such high utilization rates are unlikely as gas-powered generation will not be able to compete with coal on price.
 
8City Gas Distribution: Assuming a 30% penetration rate of CNG vehicles in Indian cities that are connected by pipeline to LNG terminals, a level already achieved by Delhi, there is the possibility of an additional incremental gas consumption of 2 mtpa. As India’s gas pipeline network expands to more cities and automotive penetration increases, the opportunity for CNG vehicles to drive incremental gas demand is very large.
 
8Refining and Petrochemicals: India’s refining capacity is powered by a combination of fuel oil and LNG, but only around two-thirds of it is coastal or connected to natural gas pipelines. A full switch to gas would lead to an incremental 1.5 mtpa of consumption. Most of India’s petrochemical plants use LNG already. Only one of them has incremental LNG demand, requiring about 0.5 mtpa of LNG.
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In what is likely to come as a shot-in-the-arm for India's ambitious plans to acquire oil and gas seismic data, the environment ministry has said that the Forest Act will not be applicable for acquisition of such data.
 
8Any work for acquisition of data that is restricted to cleaning of bushes and lopping of tree branches for purpose of sighting will not attract the stringent provisions of the Act.
 
8The environment ministry issued the clarification after the petroleum ministry sought a clarification as to whether drilling of shot holes for seismic surveys will attract the provisions of the Act.
 
8The environment ministry said that seismic activity will not attract the provisions as long as it does not involve any clearing of forest and operations are restricted to clearing of bushes and lopping of tree branches.
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Details
Is there any advantage for the oil and gas industry to set up a base in an Indian Economic Zone in Bangladesh?
 
8Prime Minister Modi had signed a deal with his counterpart in Bangladesh for such a zone.
 
8The site is at Mongla which is contiguous to the Mongla port and Mongla EPZ. It is connected to Mongla-Bagarhat road and an airport is being planned at nearby Bagarhat.
 
8Such a site could possibly be of interest to terminal operators, with the scope to set up LPG and liquid fuel terminals to cater to the demand of the local Bangladeshi market.
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The order book position of Punj Lloyd Ltd today stands an impressive $3.35 billion.
 The following is the break-up:
 
8Pipeline and tankage: $1.09 billion
 
8Process: $134 million
 
8B&I: $1.67 billion
 
8Power: $148 billion
 
8Offshore: $161 billion
 
8PL Engineering: $ 27 million
 
8Miscellaneous: $115 million.
 
8For those looking for business development opportunities, Punj Lloyd is the company to get in touch with.
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Details
BPCL is planning to build a 16-inch product pipeline from Bharat Oman Refinery Ltd in Bina to Panki in Kanpur to evacuate additional output from the refinery.
 
8The refinery, a JV between BPCL and Oman Oil Company, has a capacity of 6 MMTPA.
 
8The capacity will be expanded to 7.8 MMTPA by 2018-19.
 
8The current mode of evacuation of product is through the the Bina-Kota pipeline but this is supplemented by rail wagons and road tankers.
 
8The new pipeline will cater to markets in UP.
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The paper also goes on to argue that Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technology will have to be adopted in the long run to make coal based power generation more acceptable.
8It goes to claim that CCS can contribute very significantly to controlling carbon emission in the future. Projections are given up to the year 2050.
8It argues that CCS will be needed not just for coal fired power plant but also for gas-fired generation as well as steel making and other industrial processes.
8Examples are given of new commercial scale deployment of the world’s first application of CCS in Canada and the US.
8One example is nearer home, in Abu Dhabi, where a CCS plant attached to an iron and steel plant will remove 0.8 MMTPA of CO2.
8Many such units are now under construction.
8The paper argues for more support for CCS usage. Against $2 trillion spent on all clean energy initiatives in the last 10 years, only $20 billion has been spent on promoting the use of CCS.
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Details
The study builds three different scenarios for use of super critical power plant technology by India to illsutrate how a massive reduction in CO2 emission can be achieved as a result.
 
8The scenarios assume the shutting down of sub-critical coal based power plants and their replacement by super critical or ultra supercritical plants.
 
8Under one scenario that assumes the closure of up to 69 sub critical power plants, the CO2 emission saved will be equivalent to emissions emitted by 500 million cars
 
8To drive home the argument, the study says that such a switch will equal to generation of power by 65,000 new wind turbines.
 
8This might seem like a convincing argument to quite a few cynics of coal based power.
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