It's been a case of being trapped between the devil and the deep-blue sea for petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyar. With the sceptre of rising global fuel prices hanging over his head, Aiyar has been in a not-so-enviable corner for the last couple of months: Reality versus Realpolitik. So far, political expediency has been the winner. For, whenever the issue of a price hike reaches a flashpoint, Aiyar's first instinct is to initiate a dialogue with the CPM, the crucial ally in the UPA alliance. However, his hard-sell for raising the price line -- escalating international prices necessitate a concomitant increase in domestic prices, without which the burden falls far too heavily, and unjustly, on public sector oil marketing companies -- is mostly met with a tepid response. For the Left, the logic of a free market economy, predictably, pales in comparison to safeguarding the interest of the ubiquitous common

man. Aiyar's next port of call is usually the North Block office of the redoubtable P. Chidambaram, a man well-versed in the underlying logic governing the movement of oil prices.Yet, paradoxically, Aiyar's plea for a cut in customs duty on crude oil and excise duties on LPG and kerosene -- the resultant fall in the North Block's take of the petroleum pie would be offset by a surge in oil revenue in the first seven months of the year -- is usually met with a singular lack of enthusiasm on the part of the finance minister. Having cut duties once, Chidambaram isn't quite in the mood to consider another cut. The writing is pretty clearly etched on the wall: Raise fuel prices, don't look for duty concessions. It is, undoubtedly, a tough call for Aiyar, caught as he is between the CPM Politburo and the North Block. Having said that, there can be no denying the logic behind Aiyar's case -- there is, quite clearly, a need for both raising prices and cutting duties. And, nothing is more convincing in his defense than statistics. International oil prices have breached a 21-year high in October but, despite this, the prices of petrol and diesel in India have not been raised since August, 2004; kerosene and LPG prices have not been hiked since April 2002 except for a perfunctory hike of Rs 20/cylinder of LPG in June, 2004; the prices of diesel and petrol need to be raised by Rs 4.28 and Rs 2.21 per litre respectively for oil companies to clear up their losses, and the price of kerosene needs to go up by Rs 11.28/liter; the price of an LPG cylinder needs to be raised from the existing Rs 261 to Rs 419/cylinder. To further argue his case, Aiyar cites the example of India's neigbours, which have seen the price of kerosene go up to the range of Rs 15-18/litre and LPG somewhere in the range of Rs 372-Rs 462/cylinder. In this context, it is gratifying to note that Aiyar -- a first-time minister and a relative novice in the game called politics -- has slowly, but surely, maneuvered the odds against him. Not one known to buckle under pressure easily -- thanks to his never-say-never spirit, Aiyar has successfully engaged Politburo heavyweight Sitaram Yechuri in a dialogue last week on the subject and has been able to extract a major concession -- an agreement on a hike in the price of petrol, and a much smaller increase in the price of diesel. More importantly, he also managed to get the CPM leader to support a cut in customs and excise duties. With the CPM support behind him, Aiyar's next move is to checkmate the finance minister into agreeing on a cut in duties. Chanakya-like, Aiyar presented his gameplan to the Prime Minister when he met him on Monday: An across-the-board cut of 5% in customs duty and a reduction of excise duty to nil on LPG and kerosene, with a graded increase in the prices of petroleum products. The Prime Minister, reportedly, is willing to play Aiyar's game. Of course, outwitting the spirited finance minister is a block that the petroleum minister is sure to stumble upon. Aiyar is learning the tricks of the trade quickly. In a manner of speaking, he has been baptised by fire. He just needs to be christened. And that should take care of the devil, before he swims across the deep-blue sea! By Santanu Saikia